(Copied from this Dailypaul.com post)
Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think
It’s not just about Romney losing the upcoming contests, its also about him losing the delegates he supposedly already has…
(Check out my previous post: #RonPaul upset in the works! for a past update on the delegate breakdown )
The Mainstream Media and political bigwigs in both parties have declared Mitt Romney the presumptive GOP nominee. This “presumptive” declaration is at best premature when even favorable estimates have Romney hundreds of delegates short of reaching the magic number of 1,144 delegates required to win the Republican nomination.
Romney needs about 300 more delegates from the remaining 14 contests to claim the nomination.
There is a final charge being mounted by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance to make sure Romney does not reach the 1,144 by contesting the last 14 states or by winning hundreds of delegates in states he’s supposedly already won.
(Read more here for the breakdown)
Various published Romney delegate counts are as follows:
CNN 841 (SOURCE: CNN.com)
AP/NYT 847 (SOURCE: AP/NYT GOP Primary Page)
The Green Papers 869 (SOURCE: TheGreenPapers.com)
Recent events, however, indicate that some of Romney’s supposed delegate wins may not be as secure as once thought. This past week, county delegate nominating conventions in Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado were swept by Ron Paul supporters (and anti-Romney activists) leaving Romney with fewer delegates than expected and in the case of Iowa no expectation of delegates whatsoever (SOURCE: PolicyMic).
Clearly, the resistance to Romney’s potential candidacy is mounting a final two-front challenge not only in the upcoming 14 contests taking place next week through June but also in the county and state delegate nominating conventions scheduled through mid-July in 30 states that have already held their primary or caucus (SOURCE: Wikipedia).
In case you were not paying attention:
Romney can lose delegates.
Take a look at Iowa for example, CNN reports Romney to have won at least 7 delegates but in reality Paul supporters have taken the state GOP over and with it the RNC superdelegates (also known as RNC delegates) of chair and vice-chair. Furthermore, Paul supporters are expected to sweep the remaining state delegation slots for Paul in the upcoming state convention coming out of Iowa (SOURCE: IB Times).
In another twist to this scenario, the Massachusetts delegation, a supposedly safe Romney territory, was swept by Paul supporters in district conventions (SOURCE: PolicyMic). Despite the fact that these delegates are bound to vote for Romney in the first round of the convention there is much talk about the ability to vote “abstain” and not offer any support to any candidate in the hopes of forcing a brokered convention.
Four years ago, John McCain was not well liked by many in the grassroots and delegates with that sentiment showed their displeasure by voting “abstain” (SOURCE: Wikipedia). It may well turn out to be that a large number of anti-Romney delegates will have made it into the convention and will nullify this entire election cycle by forcing a brokered convention using this tactic.
In response to this existential threat, the Romney campaign has ordered draconian measures on Republican conventions that would clearly be overtaken by anti-Romney parties and continue their work to attain high percentage, primary wins in the remaining 14 contests (Source: Romney Hawks Believe in Ron Paul Threat).
Measures to combat insurgent grassroots locally have seen conventions canceled and SWAT teams used to break up gatherings as well as exorbitant fees charged to either delay bad outcomes or weaken grassroots resolve: (SOURCES: Washington Cancels Convention Just Before Voting, Missouri SWAT sent to MO Caucus, Alaska GOP charges last minute convention fee, then refuses to collect payment.
The name of the game being played is PERCEPTION.
The Romney campaign must maintain the perception of its inevitability or else lose precious momentum to the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance whose goal is to force a brokered convention.
At a brokered convention, anything can happen.
In 1920, Warren Harding won a brokered convention starting with the least number of bound delegates. He went on to win by a landslide in the general election. Ron Paul has been compared to a present-day Warren Harding (Source: EPJ).
The Romney campaign has also relied on an election schedule packed with winner-take-all contests in relatively friendly states in order to maintain the PERCEPTION of the presumptive nominee.
In what could be a twist of fate, only 4 of the final 14 contests remaining are winner-take-all. This could cause a number of Romney campaign election stumbles in the coming weeks potentially crippling their chances.
This past Saturday, for instance, Ron Paul won the Louisiana caucus with 74% of the vote (Source: Sun Herald). A minor hiccup for the Romney campaign but a potential speed bump as the delegate fight continues forward. However, at the same time, the Alaska GOP was firmly taken over by Ron Paul supporters (allied with activists close to Sarah Palin who has never endorsed Romney) (Source: AK GOP New Chair supports Ron Paul).
Deciding Factor: Next week’s contests in Indiana, West Virginia and Oregon will be the first indication of a coalescing anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance that will continue the fight in the following 11 contests and also in a potential brokered convention.
There are many questions to be answered in the next coming weeks:
How many more state GOPs will be overtaken by Ron Paul supporters?
How many more delegations will be won by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance?
How will the Romney campaign and the Mainstream Media continue to push the idea of the presumptive nominee?
How will the media and political establishment ultimately react to the image of the presumptive nominee slowly being chipped away by the change in political winds?
Whatever happens in the upcoming weeks, this is a turning point in the history of the Republican Party and ultimately the United States and the world.